The Goddard Institute for Space Science, a bureau of NASA, has revised the global warming data for the 20th century. There are two significant stories in this situation. First, that the revision has been necessary, due to some faulty statistical techniques related to the Y2K hoax of the past decade.
Second, and more important, is the error had been apparently covered up by GSIS, which compiled the data under the leadership of well known global warming theorist James Hansen. Hansen has worked as a paid employee of Al Gore’s political machine, which is leading the radical authoritarian movement to limit man made carbon emissions, and thus to restrict economic growth.
It appears the trend toward warmer years in the past decade is not true.
According to the new data from GISS, the new ranking of the hottest 10 years in the 20th century is as follows:
- #1 1934 ( Half of the 10 hottest years were prior to World War II )
- #2 1998 This year used to be called “warmest in history”
- #3 1921 ( Only three ”hottest” years in the past decade )
- #4 2006 This formerly “warmest” year demoted too
- #5 1931
- #6 1999 ( This is not a trend !!! )
- #7 1953
- #8 1990
- #9 1938
- #10 1939
Political Science?
The newly revised data are a result of the hard work of Canadian statistician Steven McIntyre. He was looking at the temperature records. He knows the collected data go through a “filter” process, meant to correct for any known problems. For instance, the well known heat island effect has to be taken into account so the records aren’t artificially inflated. Adjustment of data is a common practice in all government agencies.
But McIntyre, who does statistics professionally, noticed a special computational problem that seemed to creep into things in January 2000 for the first time. He wondered about this, so he contacted the Goddard Institute for Space Science – under the leadership of James Hansen. Hansen is known for being one of the more strident voices predicting disaster from warming.
GISS didn’t want an outsider to look at their data adjustment methods. McIntyre wanted to see what formulas were being used to adjust the data before releasing it. GISS (Hansen?) told him that he couldn’t have the formulas. It turns out, they did have something to hide, protecting Hansen from some embarrassment. Or, maybe Steven McIntyre has exposed an attempt at fraud (e.g. just like the “hockey stick” tale, and the “Medieval warm period” disappearance from the ICCC reports)?
After being refused, McIntryre took the data that did publicly exist and started working his way backwards through it. He discovered what appeared to be a “Y2K glitch” that distorted the results. He told GISS about this. They surrendered. With no publicity in the mainstream press, they revised the data for the last hundred years and now show different temperature records for the United States. Congratulations to Steve McIntyre!
According to the new, accurate data, 1998 was not the hottest year – nor was 2006, which was even said at the time to have surpassed it. The “trend” is not even moving higher. The hottest year on record in the United States was actually 1934. 1998 was in second place, but third place belonged to 1921.
The error had a very interesting impact on the data. The years of 1934, 1921, 1938 and 1939 were all adjusted upwards. Only 1931 remained unchanged. And the years 1998, 2006, 1999, 1953, and 1990 were all adjusted down. In fact 2001 fell off the top ten list entirely and was replaced with 1939.
The error biased the data in support of the man-made global warming theory, which is exactly what John Hansen wants everyone to believe.
It is now 2007. So that means this error has been impacting the debate, and public policy, for seven years. It has certainly helped shape public perceptions. Why did the error sit unnoticed for so many years?
Al Gore believes it. It strengthened his faith.
Religion or science? At least the Goddard Institute for Space Science seems no longer to be hiding their statistical errors, thanks to a real scientist, Steven McIntyre.
When something happens that appears to confirm the warming theories of government funded scientists, press conferences are held and dire announcements are made. But as far as I can see no press conference was held regarding the recent downward revisions. If such a press statement was released, or comments were made public, the media has failed to report on them. Reporting only those events that substantiate one side in a debate is not journalism. It is is advocacy.
Two years ago climate modelers in the UK and politicians gathered to hold another conference. The Independent on Sunday reported:
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Drought menaces Britainâs breadbasket in the east of England, a special global warming summit of ministers and farmersâ leaders will learn tomorrow.
The summit will hear that summer rainfall may drop by more than half in the south and east of the country, causing acute water shortages and seriously damaging farms.
. . . The papers say that scorching summers will become increasingly frequent with global warming, with âvery hot Augustsâ? – such as in 1995 – happening once every five years by 2050. Less rain will fall, and more moisture will evaporate from the soil, causing droughts.
They say: âHotter and drier summers are likely to result in a seasonal reduction in available water resources and the increased risk of drought. The areas currently under most pressure from agriculture will become further stressed as the regional effects of change are felt.â?
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Two years ago these models, which we are assured are accurate means of predicting climate change, said the UK would dry up as the result of warming. When the weather got wetter instead the same newspaper announced: âExceptionally heavy rain is likely to occur more often in a warmer world because air holds more moisture when it warms up, which be released as a sudden downpour.â? Dryer summers were the result of global warming but wetter summers are a âforetaste of things to comeâ? with both flooding and drought.
The old model was predicting steady rises in temperatures. The new model now says a few years of respite and then rising temperatures again. But the new model came out only after the UK Meteorological Office reported that summer temperatures in the UK have been âbelow average and around 2 °C below average across some south-western areas of the UK.â? It appears temperatures in the UK make this summer one of the coolest in the last 25 years.
[...] See the reply to Al Gore published in the Sunday Telegraph (London), Nov. 19, 2006, by Christopher Monckton, and the newly revised data on global warming published by the Goddard institute for Space Science. [...]
Fascinating stuff. While I’m convinced that climate change is very real, I am concerned about the retreat from the term global warming that we have been seeing. Certainly it’s more complex than that, and we are seeing climate extremes that can’t be simply described by the phrase “warming” Still, I’m afraid that it looks like we are retreating and admitting that the world is not warming.