by Joe Cobb
When Greece defaults on its debt, one or two predictable things will happen to the big banks in Europe, and to the government of Greece. One of the things that will not happen will be the collapse of the euro currency, nor the breakup of the European Union.
Greece is a socialist country, probably to a greater degree than any other in Europe. The recent Greek elections demonstrate it, and the new elections coming in June 2012 will not “solve” its current crisis.
Socialism has always been a “magic wand” theory of economics and government. Disregarding the logic of human action and the self-interested behavior not only of businessmen but also workers and government bureaucrats, socialists believe wishful thinking can make things happen. (When that doesn’t work, socialists historically have resorted to the whip – but even that doesn’t work anymore.)
Greek voters have clearly rejected “austerity,” which the Germans and bureaucrats in Brussels have negotiated, as a condition to bail out the failing state. It is unlikely Greek voters next month will change their minds. Meanwhile, thousands of Greeks are running to their banks and withdrawing cash, in euro paper money. The people with money saved are worried the Greek government will one day soon declare bank balances denominated in euro accounting units will suddenly be converted into “drachma” accounting units, which will rapidly become worthless.
That is no surprise. Legal tender laws don’t work when people don’t want to use the government’s money. Since the euro will remain the money in Germany, smart Greek people will keep on using it even if their government doesn’t like it. Greece is heading toward a Zimbabwe solution to its fiscal problems and just like in that African socialist paradise, the people will use U.S. dollars and other stronger currencies to carry on trade.
But as the Greek state founders and attempts to maintain some control, you will start to see (1) emigration from Greece, (2) rising unemployment and (3) shortages of everything that has to be imported. The pension payments for retired Greeks and welfare subsidies will be cut down and maybe even ended. The salaries of police and soldiers will be raised, and perhaps even paid in euros after the “drachma” reform.
Greece is a deficit government; it spends more than it collects in taxes. After the pretended monetary “reform,” tax revenues will dry up, and spending will have to dry up also. The socialist government elected next month will not be able to wave a magic wand and fix this problem.
The Banking Bailout
Meanwhile, a large number of big banks in the rest of Europe will find they have Greek bonds, payable in euro, which are in default. The junk bond position of European banks today makes the junk mortgage bonds of recent memory look like solid investments. So, the other governments in Europe will bail out their banks, just as Ireland did. The new socialist president of France is in for a surprise when he faces the choice of bailing out his banking system or paying his own French retirees and welfare subsidies.
On the bright side, Americans will be temporarily rescued from the looming consequences of the Federal Reserve’s inflationary “quantitative easing” and massive increases in U.S. bank reserves. It is not the supply of money that matters so much as the demand for how much is available. The demand for U.S. dollars by Europeans is already increasing, as you can see if you watch the foreign exchange rates and the price of gold. The more trouble Europe gets into, the more the dollar will strengthen and gold prices will rise.
U.S. exports to Europe will fall as the EU economy weakens under its fiscal crisis, but the euro as a currency may strengthen if the Germans, and the European Central Bank, hold fast to the idea of avoiding bailouts and inflation. The failing EU economy may drag down the world economy, perhaps even into a new recession, but runaway inflation is impossible – until or unless the government central banks surrender to the politicians.
Then everyone will rush to dump weaker currencies and buy stronger assets.
The economic strength of the European Union is based on its free trade zone. Even most silly socialists today understand that breaking up a free trade zone into smaller and smaller “protected” areas will only bring poverty to the smaller areas. Thus, the EU will not fall apart. It is not clear even Greece would want to withdraw, and the EU has no method in its charter to expel a member state.
The big bankers in Europe are screaming for the European Central Bank to inflate the euro and buy up the junk bonds that are polluting their balance sheets, but it is not obvious the Germans and other EU governments will yield on this.
Certainly the Germans know that inflation is not a solution, and all of the world knows that Keynesian “economic stimulus” doesn’t work. So, the future of the euro is not in jeopardy, the U.S. dollar and gold will get stronger, and the collapse of Greece and France may prove as wonderful for the rest of us as the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union.
The logic of free trade and a strong currency will be further validated by all these events. Wishful thinking will not help the socialists of Greece, but when they jump off the cliff the whole world will be watching.
(This essay was published today in American Breaking Point, hosted by my friend Charles Goyette, whose ideas on money and tax policy I share entirely.)
