Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Immigration Socialism versus Freedom
and the Free Market

Saturday, May 8th, 2010

by Jacob G. Hornberger

Let me begin by making a very simple, direct point: There is one — and only one — solution to the so-called immigration crisis: freedom and free markets. Every other measure, including the recently enacted immigration law in Arizona, will accomplish nothing more than continue the “crisis” and actually exacerbate it.

After all, how many times have we been here during the past several decades? How many so-called immigration crises have we encountered, followed by countless measures that would supposedly resolve the crisis, only to encounter a new immigration crisis a few years after immigration “reform”? How many times have we been told that if we just adopt one more measure — laws against transporting, laws against harboring, laws against employing, highway checkpoints, warrantless searches of private ranches and farms along the border, raids on businesses, amnesty, a border fence, and all the rest — the immigration “crisis” would finally be resolved.

It has never happened, and it will never happen until Americans adopt the only measure that will finally resolve the immigration “crisis” — freedom and free markets.

Permit me to explain why.

Immigration controls are simply a form of socialist central planning and economic intervention. What do we know, from both theory and experience, about socialist central planning and economic interventionism? We know that they don’t work, that they’re inherently incapable of working, and that they inevitably produce market distortions and perversions.

That’s what has happened in the area of immigration. For decades the federal government has served as an immigration central-planning authority. The central planner determines how many immigrants will be permitted to come in from any particular country, and it decides the types of immigrants it wants on the basis of such factors as age, education, language, and skills.

That’s on the supply side of the equation. The federal central-planning authority also looks at the demand side. The planner determines the types of immigrants that are needed in the United States and then factors those considerations into its allocation.

Do you see the problem? It’s the problem that besieged the Soviet Union, which relied on central planning for the production of most goods and services almost as long as the United States has relied on central planning in the area of immigration. Yet, we all know what central planning in the Soviet Union produced — planned chaos, in the form of shortages, over-supplies, and other perversions and distortions.

The reason for that planned chaos was explained a long time ago by libertarian Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek. Hayek pointed out that the central planner, no matter how brilliant, can never possess the requisite knowledge and expertise to plan and direct a complex market activity. One of the primary reasons for that inability is that market conditions, which turn on ever-changing subjective valuations of people, are changing constantly, and they’re different in every particular locale across the land.

In the marketplace, circumstances are changing every minute. In the real world, demand is never constant, not even for labor. For example, it depends on what area of the country one is considering. It depends on what the particular circumstances are. Everything is in flux at any given time.

How is a central planner supposed to come up with a plan for this? He can’t, because the minute he comes up with a plan, it’s outmoded. The minute the planner allocates workers to one part of the country because workers are needed there, another part of the country begins experiencing a greater scarcity of workers. The planner cannot possibly keep up with ever-changing conditions in life.

The beauty of a free market is that it accommodates instantaneous changes in people’s valuations. If demand for something goes up, suppliers rush to increase supply. If demand goes down, suppliers decrease production. And it all happens without a central planner. The phenomenon of the market was described by Hayek as the result of human action, not of human design.

What is it that guides people in making their decisions in a free market? The price system, a fascinating market phenomenon that we all take for granted. How do ice and workers get allocated to New Orleans when a hurricane hits there? Suppliers see the price of ice soaring, and they rush to meet the demand. Workers see wage rates soaring, and they rush to supply their labor.

No central planner. Just people planning their own lives, in accordance with the price system.

When government intervenes in the marketplace with economic controls, that’s when the trouble starts. That’s when the never-ending series of “crises” begin, along with the never-ending calls for new interventions to fix the never-ending “crises.”

Here’s another aspect to this sad tale, one that explains the role of the American people in all this. When government enacts an economic intervention, many Americans become vested in its success. It’s almost an act of patriotism. When the intervention fails to accomplish what it was supposedly intended to accomplish, people get angry and frustrated and even go into emotional hyperdrive. They then come up with an endless array of reform plans and enforcement measures that they’re convinced will finally make the intervention succeed.

Along come libertarians, who say, “The problem is with interventionism itself. All you have to do is repeal the interventions and let the free market operate, and the crises will disappear.”

That infuriates those people who have become vested in the interventions. “You libertarians are so impractical. Don’t give us your pie-in-the-sky solutions. Show us your plan for making the intervention work.”

A good example of this phenomenon took place when price controls were adopted during the 1970s. The Federal Reserve was debasing the currency, which was reflected by rising prices across the board.

So what did the government do to address the Fed’s inflationary policies? No, it did not stop the Fed’s monetary intervention. Instead, it adopted a system of price controls, an intervention that placed criminal penalties on suppliers who illegally raised their prices.

Almost immediately there were shortages, including shortages of gasoline, reflected by long lines of automobiles at service stations. There were also numerous cases of suppliers violating the price controls. Countless Americans became snitches, reporting price-control violations to the authorities.

People became vested in the success of the price controls, and they became angry and frustrated when they didn’t work. Going into hyperdrive, they kept trying to come up with some sort of ideal reform — such as rationing cards — that would finally, once and for all, make the intervention work.

But of course, it could never work, which libertarians continually pointed out, much to the chagrin of the reformers. The only thing that would work, libertarians kept emphasizing, is the free market, which meant a total and absolute repeal of the price-control system.

“Repeal? Are you libertarians crazy? Why, that would just lead to chaos!”

But chaos is what the price controls had produced through their attempt to alter the laws of supply and demand. Finally, beaten down by the failure of the intervention, federal officials did what libertarians had been advocating — they repealed price controls.

What was fascinating is how quickly things turned back to normal, once the laws of supply and demand were free to operate. Sure, the Fed was still manipulating the money supply but at least the price system could accommodate the supply of good and the demand for them, and the supply of money and the demand for it.

What was even more fascinating is how the anger and frustration that the controls had produced among the citizenry dissipated so rapidly. Once the program was repealed, people no longer had a vested interest in seeing it succeed.

It was the same with respect to Prohibition. People got angry and frustrated when that intervention failed to eradicate alcohol from society, and they became vested in coming up with reforms to make the program succeed. Finally, Prohibition was repealed, and things returned to normal.

It’s the same with the drug war. For decades, angry and frustrated Americans have come up with an infinite variety of drug-war reforms. Nothing has worked, and nothing will ever work because, again, the government cannot repeal the laws of supply and demand. More and more Americans are finally seeing that we libertarians have been correct from the beginning — the only solution to the drug war is repeal of drug laws.

It’s no different with immigration. The only thing that is going to work is freedom and free markets, which means opening the borders to the free flow of people, goods, and services.

After all, look at the United States, the largest free-trade and free-movement zone in history. People are free to cross borders of the different states. No border patrol. No customs. No interstate checkpoints. No passports. No papers. It works the same way when people cross from county to county.

It didn’t have to be that way. The Framers could have said, “Each state shall have the sovereign prerogative of controlling its borders from the people of other states.” Thank goodness they didn’t do that, because if they had, there is no doubt that many a state government would today be exercising that power, to protect its state from competing workers and producers, welfare seekers, terrorists, drug dealers, and so forth.

The same principle of free trade and free movements of people that characterize the domestic United States is what should be adopted for international borders as well: people freely crossing back and forth, visiting, touring, buying, selling, investing, opening businesses, working, and living their lives as easily as people do domestically.

Think about it this way: Suppose millions of foreign tourists “invaded” America this summer. Would anyone care? When was the last time you asked someone you dealt with to prove to you that he was an American citizen? My bet is: never. The only reason that people care about that issue is that they’ve become vested in making immigration controls work. In a totally free market, no one would care who was a citizen and who wasn’t, except on Election Day, in which case only citizens would be able to vote. In fact, my hunch is that in a free market, most foreigners wouldn’t care much whether they were U.S. citizens or not. After all, if voting was so important to them, they could still vote absentee at home. What matters most to most people is living the life they wish to live, working, and supporting their families.

Millions of people’s entering and leaving the United States during the summer months is no different, in principle, from millions of people’s entering and leaving the United States throughout the year. If the borders were opened to the free flow of goods and services, circumstances would return to normal, as they did after price controls and Prohibition were repealed. People’s lives would no longer be consumed with the immigration “crisis” and they wouldn’t be spending their lives trying to come up with a reform of immigration laws. How many people were consumed with the Prohibition “crisis” or the price-control “crisis” after those interventions were repealed? My hunch: very few.

What about the claim that immigrants just come to America for welfare, not to work? The vast majority of immigrants come to sustain and improve their lives through labor. The reason why the ICE always raids private businesses and not the welfare offices is that it knows that that’s where the immigrants are. Immigrants have always been characterized by their strong work ethic. Moreover, immigrants pay taxes, just as Americans do. Anyway, why infringe on fundamental, God-given gifts, such as freedom of travel, freedom to move, freedom of contract, freedom of association, and freedom to work in order to protect a crooked, corrupt, immoral, and destructive statist system as the socialistic welfare state?

What about the claim that immigrants steal jobs from Americans? While immigrants will impact employment in particular sectors, the vitality and prosperity they bring raise the number and quality of overall jobs in the economy, including better, higher-paying jobs for the people they displace.

What about the claim that borders will disappear? Just because people are free to cross a border back and forth doesn’t mean the border disappears. Just ask the people of Maryland and Virginia, who cross the Potomac back and forth every day. When people cross a border, the border remains and they become subject to the jurisdiction and laws of the area they’re entering.

What about the claim that terrorists will come to America? The only way to put a stop to the threat of terrorism against Americans is to stop the U.S. government from doing any more killing, injuring, or harming of foreigners with its foreign policy of sanctions, embargoes, invasions, occupations, assassinations, kidnappings, torture, rendition, support of foreign regimes, drug laws, and interference with the internal affairs of other countries. A victim of such actions who is determined to wreak vengeance will find a way to enter the United States, even as a tourist. Don’t forget: The 9/11 attackers entered the United States legally. Anyway, we don’t call for immigration controls between the states, notwithstanding the fact that terrorists are free to cross state borders, because we refuse to surrender the freedom to cross domestic borders for the sake of trying to secure safety from terrorists.

What about the claim that not all immigrants assimilate? So what? But why should anyone care if someone assimilates or not? Do we care whether foreign tourists assimilate? What difference does it make if the tourist decides to live here? There are more than a million Americans retired in Mexico, many of whom don’t learn Spanish, continue preparing American food, continue cheering for American sports teams, and maintain their American citizenship. Who cares? Isn’t that what freedom is all about? I say: Leave those Americans alone, and leave foreigners living abroad alone. Anyway, freedom and diversity are America’s culture. That’s why Americans take such pleasure and pride in such places as Chinatown, Little Italy, Greektown, the French Quarter, and, indeed, the entire Southwest United States, which constituted the northern half of Mexico before the United States eagerly absorbed it, along with its Indian-Spanish-Mexican culture, language, people, and customs. We also should bear in mind that immigration and citizenship are two different things. Simply because foreigners, including Americans, are living abroad doesn’t mean that they have to be granted citizenship in the country in which they are residing. Finally, history has shown that by the time the grandchildren of immigrants are born within a country, this third generation is fully absorbed into the culture, with many of them not even being able to speak the language of their grandparents’ country of origin.

A policy of open borders is the only thing that is consistent with the principles of liberty, free markets, morality, love-thy-neighbor as thyself, and economic prosperity. And it’s the only policy that works. In a world mired in socialism and interventionism, Americans should be leading the world out of this morass, and one of the best places to begin is by repealing immigration socialism.

To further explore why a policy of open borders is the only moral and practical solution to America’s immigration woes, I highly recommend the following three books: FFF’s book The Case for Free Trade and Open Immigration, edited by Richard M. Ebeling and Jacob G. Hornberger (libertarians), Immigrants: Your Country Needs Them, by Philippe Legrain (a liberal), and Let Them In: The Case for Open Borders, by Jason Riley (a conservative).

Jacob Hornberger is founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation. This article appears at http://www.fff.org/comment/com1005c.asp

Audit the Fed? Why?

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

I have been watching with amusement the progress Ron Paul has been making with cosponsors on his bill (HR 1207). The cosponsors tactic was one that I used in the mid-1980s to get the gold coin bill adopted (PL 99-185), in the face of Treasury opposition. Those assholes were so anti-gold they didn’t even want a bullion coin to compete in the market with Krugerrands and Maple Leafs! Our key success in 1985 was to enlist the Black Caucus, chaired by Rep. Julian Dixon (D-CA) and his good friend Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA).

Questioning the Federal Reserve “Church”

I think it is true that the “audit the Fed” issue is just a publicity stunt, as Forbes points out. But it is a useful publicity stunt because it has focused a lot of attention on the Fed and its position in American society.

Until very recently, the Fed was treated as some kind of church. Its pontiffs were treated as spokesmen for the Mystery, and every member of Congress was very shy of criticizing the Fed, except for a few old populists like Henry Gonzalez who would have abolished the Fed and replaced it with the Treasury issuing fiat paper money in order to push interest rates down to zero, etc. William Jennings Bryan exercised pernicious influence back in 1913 to convert what would have been a fairly benign private clearing house that issued banknotes (just as every other National Bank also in those days did) – into a government agency that issued “obligations of the United States.” Thus the Fed was born. Rosemary’s baby.

I say Ron Paul’s bill (HR 1207) is a “useful” publicity stunt, but it could backfire if

    (1) the concerns Bernanke highlighted came true, namely that the Fed felt pressured by Congress to inflate; and
    (2) some kind of “audit” is conducted and the Fed is whitewashed and the whole issue becomes covered up with a new cloak of pseudo-democratic appearances.

Certainly, if a government is going to enforce a monopoly currency, the monopoly agency should *NOT* be under popular or democratic control. It should focus strictly on maximizing profit. For a monopoly currency that means only sustaining and stabilizing the purchasing power of the monetary unit. If a central bank can do that, it will rule forever in its narrow sphere.

The business side of the Fed is already audited. The current “Tax on Federal Reserve Notes” (so called; not really accurately named), which is a line item in the Fed’s annual income statement, is a 100% tax on the Fed’s nominal monetary profits. The money goes directly to the U.S. Treasury, just as the coinage seigniorage from the Mint also goes. (Of course, the Fed gets “to skim” because it pays its operating expenses before remitting to the Treasury – but that is revealed in the audits already conducted and published.)

The three areas where the Fed is not today audited are all justified, in my view, under the system we have.

  • First, transactions with foreign central banks and IMF, Bank for International Settlements, etc. are secret because the foreigners want it done that way. The Fed acts as a fiscal agent for a lot of foreign governments, particularly the smaller ones.
  • Second the Federal Open Market Committee and the games it plays under the rubric, “monetary policy,” do have the power to move the stock and bond markets in powerful swings. If anyone had insider knowledge of what the FOMC were doing on any particular day, your profits from day-trading would be gigantic. A hedge fund manager’s dream come true.
  • Third, the FOMC operations, buying and selling to impact the Fed Funds rate, would also be an area that should not be allowed to become something of daily, transparent knowledge. The claim that these things should be kept non-political and out of sight of speculators and day traders makes sense to me.

The Monopoly Problem

But, the real issue is WHY should the Fed be a monopoly, and WHY should the United States government even want to use an undefined F.R.A.U.D. monetary system? [Note acronym: "Federal Reserve Accounting Unit Dollar"]

The answer is because the British Neo-Classical School of economics, which developed under the Victorian era regime following Peel’s Act of 1844, had neglected and lost track of the debates among – yes, amateur for the most part – economists from 1800-1844. Lawrence H. White’s book on this history, “Free Banking in Britain,” is very informative. Even Milton Friedman changed his mind after reading about free banking.

The British Economists

The Briish economists after 1844 came to the conclusion that “scientific management” of a monetary monopoly would be superior to whatever crippled market process occurred under a “pseudo-gold-standard” (Milton Friedman’s label).

Yet, of course, the whole appeal of “scientific management” of an economic system ought to have passed away with the fall of the Soviet Union.

The observation that fewer business cycle downturns occurred after 1913 than before the Fed ignores a lot of economic history. First, it ignores the stupid regulations imposed by the National Bank Act of 1863 that forced banks to operated as undercapitalized agencies, because they were forced to buy government bonds in order to issue currency (but not demand deposits). This crippled the banking system and led to many more runs on banks and contractions than would have occurred without such rules.

Comparing the Canadian experience with the U.S. experience shows how much more stable the Canadian system was, with a more pure system of free banking. Canada didn’t create the Bank of Canada until the late 1930s, and by that time it was the mania of every government on earth to have its own central bank – and there was no longer any international gold payments system.

Second, although there was no Federal Reserve prior to 1913, there was the Bank of England, which acted like a global central bank for all the “gold standard” countries. And the Bank of England was very incompetent in running monetary policy, which is one reason the British Neo-Classical School economists were so critical of the classical pseudo-gold-standard. As the Bank of England induced expansion and contractions in the London financial markets, those markets affected all the rest of the world, New York in particular because of America’s close links with the British Empire. See Walter Bagehot, “Lombard Street” (1873) on “the unnatural system of centralization” and the mismanagement of the Bank of England. Bagehot was the editor of The Economist magazine.

Moreover after 1935, monetary policy was deliberately conducted with a bias never to allow a contraction and to promote a mild and gradual inflation. If you look at a graph of monetary expansion since WW2, many of what would have been contractions before 1913 are just flat spots on a rising chart. This is why Milton Friedman emphasized that it is the 2nd derivative (change in the rate of change) in monetary expansion that affects the growth of nominal GDP after a 6-18 month lag.

So, the bottom line is that I much prefer Ron Paul’s bill (HR 2779) to relax legal tender laws. If I could go all the way to utopia, I would urge a law having Congress make appropriations, budgets, and to assess taxes using the gram of gold as the government’s official unit of account, with a floating rate of exchange between the [thereafter] non-legal-tender F.R.A.U.D. units, which would continue to circulate and probably continue to dominate the financial markets. The U.S. national debt could still be payable in “dollars” but at a floating exchange rate with gold grams.

This might be the way to conform with the 14th Amendment, Section 4, and to pay off the national debt (in “dollars,” but not in gold grams).

Optimal Currency Areas

Indeed, in the literature of “optimal currency areas” it is not clear the whole United States should be a single currency area, much less all of Europe under the Euro. Labor markets in particular could operate more efficiently if wages were paid in local currencies. Michigan right now could experience a currency devaluation and that would help with unemployment.

Financial markets would probably operate more efficiently if prices were quoted in a global currency independent of national governments (e.g., gold grams).

And with floating exchange rates among them all.

National Health Preview

Sunday, March 29th, 2009
The Massachusetts Debacle,
Coming Soon to Your Neighborhood.

The Wall Street Journal, Opinion & Outlook, March 27, 2009

Praise Mitt Romney. Three years ago, the former Massachusetts Governor had the inadvertent good sense to create the “universal” health-care program that the White House and Congress now want to inflict on the entire country. It is proving to be instructive, as Mr. Romney’s foresight previews what President Obama, Max Baucus, Ted Kennedy and Pete Stark are cooking up for everyone else.

In Massachusetts’s latest crisis, Governor Deval Patrick and his Democratic colleagues are starting to move down the path that government health plans always follow when spending collides with reality -i.e., price controls. As costs continue to rise, the inevitable results are coverage restrictions and waiting periods. It was only a matter of time.

They’re trying to manage the huge costs of the subsidized middle-class insurance program that is gradually swallowing the state budget. The program provides low- or no-cost coverage to about 165,000 residents, or three-fifths of the newly insured, and is budgeted at $880 million for 2010, a 7.3% single-year increase that is likely to be optimistic. The state’s overall costs on health programs have increased by 42% (!) since 2006.

Like gamblers doubling down on their losses, Democrats have already hiked the fines for people who don’t obtain insurance under the “individual mandate,” already increased business penalties, taxed insurers and hospitals, raised premiums, and pumped up the state tobacco levy. That’s still not enough money.

So earlier this year, Mr. Patrick appointed a state commission to figure out how to control costs and preserve “this grand experiment.” One objective is to change the incentives for preventative care and treatments for chronic disease, but everyone says that. It sometimes results in better health but always more spending. So-called “pay for performance” financing models, on the other hand, would do away with fee for service – but they also tend to reward process, not the better results implied.

What are the alternatives? If health planners won’t accept the prices set by the marketplace – thus putting themselves out of work – the only other choice is limiting care via politics, much as Canada and most of Europe do today. The Patrick panel is considering one option to “exclude coverage of services of low priority/low value.” Another would “limit coverage to services that produce the highest value when considering both clinical effectiveness and cost.” (Guess who would determine what is high or low value? Not patients or doctors.) Yet another is “a limitation on the total amount of money available for health care services,” i.e., an overall spending cap.

The Institute for America’s Future – which is providing the intellectual horsepower (we use the term loosely) for reforms like those in Massachusetts – argues that the cost overruns prove the state must cap how much insurers are allowed to charge consumers and regulate their profits. If Mr. Patrick doesn’t get there first, that is. He reportedly told insurers and hospitals at a closed meeting this month that if they didn’t take steps to hold down the rate of medical inflation, he would.

Even the single-payer cheerleaders at the New York Times have caught on to this rolling catastrophe. In a page-one story this month, the paper reported on the “expedient choice” that Mr. Romney and Democrats made to defer “until another day any serious effort to control the state’s runaway health costs. . . . Those who led the 2006 effort said it would not have been feasible to enact universal coverage if the legislation had required heavy cost controls. The very stakeholders who were coaxed into the tent – doctors, hospitals, insurers and consumer groups – would probably have been driven into opposition by efforts to reduce their revenues and constrain their medical practices, they said.”

Now they tell us. What really whipped along RomneyCare were claims that health care would be less expensive if everyone were covered. But reducing costs while increasing access are irreconcilable issues. Mr. Romney should have known better before signing on to this not-so-grand experiment, especially since the state’s “free market” reforms that he boasts about have proven to be irrelevant when not fictional. Only 21,000 people have used the “connector” that was supposed to link individuals to private insurers.

Which brings us to Washington, where Mr. Obama and Congressional Democrats are about to try their own Bay State bait and switch: First create vast new entitlements that can never be repealed, then later take the less popular step of rationing care when it’s their last hope to save the federal fisc.

The consequences of that deception will be far worse than those in Massachusetts, however, given that prior to 2006 the state already had a far smaller percentage of its population uninsured than the national average. The real lesson of Massachusetts is that reform proponents won’t tell Americans the truth about what “universal” coverage really means: Runaway costs followed by price controls and bureaucratic rationing.

Capitalism Needs a Sound-Money Foundation

Thursday, February 12th, 2009

by Judy Shelton

Let’s give the Fed some competition. Abolish legal tender laws and see whose money people trust.

Let’s go back to the gold standard.

If the very idea seems at odds with what is currently happening in our country – with Congress preparing to pass a massive economic stimulus bill that will push the fiscal deficit to triple the size of last year’s record budget gap – it’s because a gold standard stands in the way of runaway government spending.

Under a gold standard, if people think the paper money printed by government is losing value, they have the right to switch to gold. Fiat money – i.e., currency with no intrinsic worth that government has decreed legal tender – loses its value when government creates more than can be absorbed by the productive real economy. Too much fiat money results in inflation – which pools in certain sectors at first, such as housing or financial assets, but ultimately raises prices in general.

Inflation is the enemy of capitalism, chiseling away at the foundation of free markets and the laws of supply and demand. It distorts price signals, making retailers look like profiteers and deceiving workers into thinking their wages have gone up. It pushes families into higher income tax brackets without increasing their real consumption opportunities.

In short, inflation undermines capitalism by destroying the rationale for dedicating a portion of today’s earnings to savings. Accumulated savings provide the capital that finances projects that generate higher future returns; it’s how an economy grows, how a society reaches higher levels of prosperity. But inflation makes suckers out of savers.

If capitalism is to be preserved, it can’t be through the con game of diluting the value of money. People see through such tactics; they recognize the signs of impending inflation. When we see Congress getting ready to pay for 40% of 2009 federal budget expenditures with money created from thin air, there’s no getting around it. Our money will lose its capacity to serve as an honest measure, a meaningful unit of account. Our paper currency cannot provide a reliable store of value.

So we must first establish a sound foundation for capitalism by permitting people to use a form of money they trust. Gold and silver have traditionally served as currencies – and for good reason. A study by two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Arthur Rolnick and Warren Weber, concluded that gold and silver standards consistently outperform fiat standards. Analyzing data over many decades for a large sample of countries, they found that “every country in our sample experienced a higher rate of inflation in the period during which it was operating under a fiat standard than in the period during which it was operating under a commodity standard.”

Given that the driving force of free-market capitalism is competition, it stands to reason that the best way to improve money is through currency competition. Individuals should be able to choose whether they wish to carry out their personal economic transactions using the paper currency offered by the government, or to conduct their affairs using voluntary private contracts linked to payment in gold or silver.

Legal tender laws currently favor government-issued money, putting private contracts in gold or silver at a distinct disadvantage. Contracts denominated in Federal Reserve notes are enforced by the courts, whereas contracts denominated in gold are not. Gold purchases are subject to taxes, both sales and capital gains. And while the Constitution specifies that only commodity standards are lawful – “No state shall coin money, emit bills of credit, or make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts” (Art. I, Sec. 10) – it is fiat money that enjoys legal tender status and its protections.

Now is the time to challenge the exclusive monopoly of Federal Reserve notes as currency. Buyers and sellers, by mutual consent, should have access to an alternate means for settling accounts; they should be able to do business using a monetary unit of account defined in terms of gold. The existence of parallel currencies operating side-by-side on an equal legal footing would make it clear whether people had more confidence in fiat money or money redeemable in gold. If the gold-based system is preferred, it means that people fully understand that the purpose of money is to facilitate commerce, not to camouflage fiscal mismanagement.

Private gold currencies have served as the medium of exchange throughout history – long before kings and governments took over the franchise. The initial justification for government involvement in money was to certify the weight and fineness of private gold coins. That rulers found it all too tempting to debase the money and defraud its users testifies more to the corruptive aspects of sovereign authority than to the viability of gold-based money.

Which is why government officials should not now have the last word in determining the monetary measure, especially when they have abused the privilege.

The same values that will help America regain its economic footing and get back on the path to productive growth – honesty, reliability, accountability – should be reflected in our money. Economists who promote the government-knows-best approach of Keynesian economics fail to comprehend the damaging consequences of spurring economic activity through a money illusion. Fiscal “stimulus” at the expense of monetary stability may accommodate the principles of the childless British economist who famously quipped, “In the long run, we’re all dead.” But it shortchanges future generations by saddling them with undeserved debt obligations.

There is also the argument that gold-linked money deprives the government of needed “flexibility” and could lead to falling prices. But contrary to fears of harmful deflation, the big problem is not that nominal prices might go down as production declines, but rather that dollar prices artificially pumped up by government deficit spending merely paper over the real economic situation. When the output of goods grows faster than the stock of money, benign deflation can occur – it happened from 1880 to 1900 while the U.S. was on a gold standard. But the total price-level decline was 10% stretched over 20 years. Meanwhile, the gross domestic product more than doubled.

At a moment when the world is questioning the virtues of democratic capitalism, our nation should provide global leadership by focusing on the need for monetary integrity. One of the most serious threats to global economic recovery – aside from inadequate savings – is protectionism. An important benefit of developing a parallel currency linked to gold is that other countries could likewise permit their own citizens to utilize it. To the extent they did so, a common currency area would be created not subject to the insidious protectionism of sliding exchange rates.

The fiasco of the G-20 meeting in Washington last November — it was supposed to usher in “the next Bretton Woods” – suggests that any move toward a new international monetary system based on gold will more likely take place through the grass-roots efforts of Americans. It may already be happening at the state level. Last month, Indiana state Sen. Greg Walker introduced a bill – “The Indiana Honest Money Act” – which would, if enacted, allow citizens the option of paying in or receiving back gold, silver or the equivalent electronic receipt as an alternative to Federal Reserve notes for all transactions conducted with the state of Indiana.

It may turn out to be a bellwether. Certainly, it’s a sign of a growing feeling in the heartland that we need to go back to sound money. We need money that works for the legitimate producers and consumers of the world – the savers and borrowers, the entrepreneurs. Not money that works for the chiselers.

Ms. Shelton, an economist, is author of “Money Meltdown: Restoring Order to the Global Currency System” (Free Press, 1994).

Published in The Wall Street Journal, Feb.12, 2009.

Photo Enforcement (highway speed) Cameras

Friday, December 12th, 2008

by Joe Cobb

Photo Enforcement is pervasive now all over Phoenix and Arizona, clearly as a revenue measure, but it is also an effective speed-reduction system. I have quickly learned where I can speed and where I must brake down to 65-55mph (Arizona DPS highway cops do post yellow diamond signs giving you half-mile and 300 ft. warnings, so you have time to hit the brakes.)

I understand and celebrate the spirit of rebellion. Why should the fucking government use new technology to extract cash from us, just to use the free roads.

Free roads?

Zero priced roads are not zero cost roads, and the gasoline excise tax pretends to cover this problem. A tax on vehicle axle weight would be more sensible, in regard to road maintenance.

I regard all of the roads as “somebody’s property,” in this case the highway department boss (government employee). He is the commissar who should be mandated to operate his transportation system at a cash profit. Yes, I say “cash profit” to take away the fuzzy “social benefits” claim.

I understand these new photo enforcement cameras as a toll collection – revenue technique. Toll booths and electronic-radio car sensors are other toll collection revenue techniques. The difference is that they give me a choice:

  • If I perform a behavior of obedience (to drive more slowly), the photo enforcement cameras will give me a free pass.
  • If I am in a hurry, they charge me for the use of the segment of roadway. (Current Arizona price is $181.)
  • Taxation Methods

    Among the choices of sales (consumption taxes), net income taxes (reduces savings), and direct taxes (per capita), the Henry George/D.Ricardo/Adam Smith proposal to tax land rent – and not to tax labor or capital – is the best. It is least worse among bad things.

    Add to this list what I call “the Pirates of the Caribbean tax system.” Instead of the tax collector getting maybe 10% from all of the producers, he takes 100% from a decimated group. It would increase uncertainty, but fiscally the result is the same.

    Cameras at intersections, to catch red-light runners; cameras along the freeway to collect speed fines; and the sneaky photo vans they move around to nab drivers at unusual locations; all of these are very annoying, but they are merely a “Pirates of the Caribbean” tax on highways.

    The Great Recession

    Sunday, November 9th, 2008

    Nobody uses the term “depression” any more to describe periods of economic slowdown, although it has become temporarily a fad to describe the current economic situation by reference to the 1930s. The current recession is very mild so far, although the recent election hype added trash-talk about the failure of free markets and analogies to F.D.R. Fear of yet-unknown 2009 economic news has put “depression” on the op-ed pages.

    In the 1930s, the prolonged nature of the economic downturn was new and unexpected. The stock market crashes in 1929 and 1930, the wave of bank failures in the United States, and the extent of unemployment – particularly in urban areas, where it was highly visible – were not understood. Nobody believed it was natural or normal to have such an economic downturn. The Soviet revolution only 15 years earlier raised the fear that Marx had been correct about the collapse of capitalism.

    Along came John Maynard Keynes and the creation of modern macroeconomic theory: the idea that economic science had to have a different theory for the economy as-a-whole, apart from a theory of “micro” business and consumer choices. “Macro” economics wants to look down on the earth from space and examine why booms and busts, inflations and recessions, and unemployment, happen. Like any scientist, the economist also wants to have some suggestions for curing the ailments.

    The one detail about macroeconomics, which is special, is how it engages in politics. One feature of the economy as-a-whole stands out from “micro” economic theory: government policy can be changed, and this can affect the entire economic system. Microeconomics relies on government too, but in a relatively unchanging way. Individual markets rely on property rights and contract law, which are things courts and cops enforce.

    Macroeconomics puts “economic policy” on the agenda of presidents and lawmakers as “leadership” – just as generals and admirals command armies and fleets.

    “The Free Market Has Failed”

    At a time like today, many people around the world are concerned about their jobs or their retirement funds invested in the stock market, or about losing their homes. Our political leaders are all too eager to step forward “to save us.” The lessons of elections since 1932 are very clear. No political leader can survive unless he or she is very visible “doing something.”

    The very idea of a free market is that businessmen and consumers do their own things. Prosperity and economic growth just happen, without government doing more than enforcing long-established property rights and holding court when individuals want to quarrel over them. In the Great Depression of the 1930s, the idea was born that government had to “do something” because nobody wanted just to wait for things to get better.

    Perhaps the first question should be, “Why Did the Free Market Fail?” The Marxists and other critics of free markets in general do not ask this question because they assume markets don’t work in the first place. Or they assume markets work temporarily, but do not serve humanity with social justice or equality and therefore breakdowns – causing poverty, suffering, and injustice – are just normal problems that require fixing.

    Earlier recessions and depressions had been severe, but short. The market always recovered. By 1933, people had begun to ask
    (1) why has this problem lasted longer than normal?
    and (2) why hasn’t President Hoover “done something?”

    Five excellent books look at the question of what Hoover and Roosevelt, and Congress did both to cause and to prolong the Great Depression:

  • Amity Schlaes, “The Forgotten Man” (2007)
  • Jim Powell, “FDR’s Folly; How Roosevent and His New Deal Prolonged the Great Depression” (2003)
  • Jude Wanniski, “The Way the World Works” (1978)
  • Murray N. Rothbard, “America’s Great
    Depression” (1963)
  • Milton Friedman, “The Great Contraction” (1963)
  • Friedman highlights the mistakes of Federal Reserve policy, Rothbard concentrates on Hoover’s mistakes, Wanniski identifies the impact of the Smoot-Hawley tariff, and Powell examines the consequences of F.D.R.’s taxes and regulations in preventing recovery.

    Rigging or Regulating Markets?

    Economists study markets and how they work. It is not our scientific, scholarly view that markets fail. Markets do not fail, because people keep on trading with each other. Economic life goes on. And we all agree that “rigging” a market will not make it work better, although many economists believe that “regulating” a market can help.

    The difference between “rigging” and “regulating” is subtle: the former is deemed greedy and criminal whereas the latter is benevolent and prevents crime. Yet, of course, all regulations help some businesses and impose costs on others, just as “rigging” a market will do. Lobbyists make a living fuzzing up the fine details for the benefit of their clients.

    The idea of centralized economic planning, Soviet style, has been discredited. Economic science did make a lot of progress after World War I – the war introduced centralized economic planning. Germany set the example for Lenin to inflict it on Russia. Economists Ludwig von Mises, in “Socialism” (1922), and Nobel Laureate F.A. Hayek in “The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945), demonstrated why, in principle, centralized planning cannot succeed. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 settled any controversy. So, the free market does work, spectacularly well, most of the time. What needs explanation is why it seems to fail.

    Failure from External Shocks, or Internal Contradictions?

    External shocks to society, like Hurricane Katrina in 2005 or Pearl Harbor in 1941, can clearly throw normal economic activity out the window. Extraordinary actions are required. External shocks can take two forms, however, and the best response depends on what has actually happened. Natural disasters that are localized, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, can be resolved by thousands or millions of people pitching in to help; relief organizations, and governments, can mobilize resources to rescue victims and rebuild. Man-made disasters are different.

    UCLA Prof. Jack Hirshleifer in “Disaster and Recovery: A Historical Survey” (1963), observed that using free markets (free prices; free trade) to coordinate recovery speeds up effects. Restricting markets, e.g. by price controls and resource allocations, slows down recovery.

    This is due to the decentralized nature of information: when the state of our world changes, the problem is how to adapt to new conditions and move forward. If only central planners are allowed to make decisions, and others must wait for orders and directions, the amount of information about the problems and solutions must be smaller than if everyone were encouraged to use localized information and to take personal action immediately.

    Hirshleifer published his research project for the RAND Corporation and the Air Force, which was researching a nuclear war disaster.

    Is an economic slowdown or collapse more like a natural disaster, or more like a man-made disaster? Social science demonstrates that not all human-caused events are human-intended events. Not every good result is a product of good intentions, and not every bad result is a conspiracy. If economic slowdowns are more like natural disasters, we must look for systemic conditions that gradually build up during times of prosperity; then burst, or break out. Alan Greenspan called it “irrational exhuberance” during the boom times. Were the boom times themselves artificially stimulated?

    Man Made Disasters

    If an economic slowdown is more like a man-made disaster, we need to look at the specific events or policies that triggered it. The Great Depression was a man-made disaster; government caused it by wrong-headed policies.

    Jude Wanniski points to the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 as an external shock to the economic system, which was definitely man made. It caused (1) the bank failures in the farm (exporting) economy, which spread to the money centers; and (2) the stock market collapses, which were closely timed to the votes in Congress. The stock market collapse of October 1929 is a famous event at the beginning of the Great Depression. It is often cited; but the stock market recovered, and the stock market’s long decline began in April 1930, when the Smoot-Hawley tariff became law. The bank failures of 1930-33 were not caused by the stock market collapses. They were caused by Congress voting to hike the tariff tax, which raised costs at a time of tightening credit. Similar to today.

    Milton Friedman points to the blunders of the Federal Reserve in 1930-33. The Fed presided over bank failures – and the disappearance of one-third of the American money supply during those three years. This caused the economic slowdown: higher costs, reduced sales, tighter credit, bank failures, appreciating monetary value. Friedman proves inflation is caused by too much money, and depressions are caused by too little money – and credit – in the economy.

    Since the money supply shrank by one-third, all of the prices in the United States in 1930-33 should have also moved down by one-third. Nobody, of course, ever cuts his price (except tactically, to increase sales). Unemployment was the result of holding up prices, which was Herbert Hoover’s unique contribution to “doing something” about the depression. Rothbard points out that Hoover was very active in promoting higher prices and wages as a solution to the depression, as also did F.D.R. after 1933. Hoover did exactly the wrong thing, as the money supply was collapsing, when he tried to keep wages and prices higher. More unemployment was the result.

    The conclusion has to be that the Great Depression of the 1930s was a man-made disaster, and it lasted for a decade because of man-made efforts to “do something” about it. This is not to say, of course, that nothing could have been done. Unfortunately the wrong things were done. F.D.R. might have declared, at the same time he closed all the banks, that all prices in America would immediately be cut by one-third. Since bank failures were an important cause of the monetary deflation, and one dollar in 1933 was more scarce and more valuable than one dollar in 1929, such a decree from the White House would have been just like what they did in France, Brazil, Argentina, et al. when they struck the extra zeroes off the money, to change a million-peso bill into a hundred-peso bill.

    Man-made disasters can be fixed by man-made changes in policy or corrective actions in the opposite direction. But this also requires understanding of the economic causes of the problem. A direct reversal of course is not always a solution, just as the damage caused by a car running over a man would not be fixed by reversing gears and running backwards over him again. But cute examples aside, if we can see and understand what has caused an economic slowdown, we can also see what might make things speed up to normal again.

    What Should Obama and Congress Do Now?

    Perhaps the most important question is what should they avoid? Jim Powell’s masterly book, “F.D.R.’s Folly,” documents the events of 1933-41 and we can clearly see how the programs of the New Deal failed to make the Great Depression go away. Powell quotes the writings of F.D.R.’s cabinet members and White House advisors. It is clear that social reform was more on their minds than economic recovery – similar to Obama. Roosevelt’s talent as a political leader was clearly of the same magnitude as Hitler, Mussolini, Peron, and Churchill. They all aroused emotions and evoked love and loyalty to their leadership. But it is quite another thing to look back and ask about their accomplishments for the public good.

    Barack Obama may preside over a short and perhaps not-severe recession, or he may choose to step on the stage of history and flex his ego. The 2008 election campaign theme of “Change” does not tell us very much, but it can signify the beginning of a long dark period in American history – like 1933-41.

    As a University of Chicago man, I am hopeful Obama’s Chicago connections will keep him from repeating F.D.R.’s folly.

    In Praise of Cheap Labor

    Thursday, October 30th, 2008

    by Paul Krugman

    Bad jobs at bad wages are better than no jobs at all.

    For many years a huge Manila garbage dump known as Smokey Mountain was a favorite media symbol of Third World poverty. Several thousand men, women, and children lived on that dump – enduring the stench, the flies, and the toxic waste in order to make a living combing the garbage for scrap metal and other recyclables. And they lived there voluntarily, because the $10 or so a squatter family could clear in a day was better than the alternatives.

    The squatters are gone now, forcibly removed by Philippine police last year as a cosmetic move in advance of a Pacific Rim summit. But I found myself thinking about Smokey Mountain recently, after reading my latest batch of hate mail.

    The occasion was an op-ed piece I had written for The New York Times, in which I had pointed out that while wages and working conditions in the new export industries of the Third World are appalling, they are a big improvement over the “previous, less visible rural poverty.” I guess I should have expected that this comment would generate letters along the lines of, “Well, if you lose your comfortable position as an American professor you can always find another job – as long as you are 12 years old and willing to work for 40 cents an hour.”

    Such moral outrage is common among the opponents of globalization – of the transfer of technology and capital from high-wage to low-wage countries and the resulting growth of labor-intensive Third World exports. These critics take it as a given that anyone with a good word for this process is naive or corrupt and, in either case, a de facto agent of global capital in its oppression of workers here and abroad.

    But matters are not that simple, and the moral lines are not that clear. In fact, let me make a counter-accusation: The lofty moral tone of the opponents of globalization is possible only because they have chosen not to think their position through. While fat-cat capitalists might benefit from globalization, the biggest beneficiaries are, yes, Third World workers.

    After all, global poverty is not something recently invented for the benefit of multinational corporations. Let’s turn the clock back to the Third World as it was only two decades ago (and still is, in many countries). In those days, although the rapid economic growth of a handful of small Asian nations had started to attract attention, developing countries like Indonesia or Bangladesh were still mainly what they had always been: exporters of raw materials, importers of manufactures. Inefficient manufacturing sectors served their domestic markets, sheltered behind import quotas, but generated few jobs. Meanwhile, population pressure pushed desperate peasants into cultivating ever more marginal land or seeking a livelihood in any way possible – such as homesteading on a mountain of garbage.

    Given this lack of other opportunities, you could hire workers in Jakarta or Manila for a pittance. But in the mid-’70s, cheap labor was not enough to allow a developing country to compete in world markets for manufactured goods. The entrenched advantages of advanced nations – their infrastructure and technical know-how, the vastly larger size of their markets and their proximity to suppliers of key components, their political stability and the subtle-but-crucial social adaptations that are necessary to operate an efficient economy – seemed to outweigh even a tenfold or twentyfold disparity in wage rates.

    And then something changed. Some combination of factors that we still don’t fully understand – lower tariff barriers, improved telecommunications, cheaper air transport – reduced the disadvantages of producing in developing countries. (Other things being the same, it is still better to produce in the First World – stories of companies that moved production to Mexico or East Asia, then moved back after experiencing the disadvantages of the Third World environment, are common.) In a substantial number of industries, low wages allowed developing countries to break into world markets. And so countries that had previously made a living selling jute or coffee started producing shirts and sneakers instead.

    Workers in those shirt and sneaker factories are, inevitably, paid very little and expected to endure terrible working conditions. I say “inevitably” because their employers are not in business for their (or their workers’) health; they pay as little as possible, and that minimum is determined by the other opportunities available to workers. And these are still extremely poor countries, where living on a garbage heap is attractive compared with the alternatives.

    And yet, wherever the new export industries have grown, there has been measurable improvement in the lives of ordinary people. Partly this is because a growing industry must offer a somewhat higher wage than workers could get elsewhere in order to get them to move. More importantly, however, the growth of manufacturing – and of the penumbra of other jobs that the new export sector creates – has a ripple effect throughout the economy. The pressure on the land becomes less intense, so rural wages rise; the pool of unemployed urban dwellers always anxious for work shrinks, so factories start to compete with each other for workers, and urban wages also begin to rise. Where the process has gone on long enough – say, in South Korea or Taiwan – average wages start to approach what an American teen-ager can earn at McDonald’s. And eventually people are no longer eager to live on garbage dumps. (Smokey Mountain persisted because the Philippines, until recently, did not share in the export-led growth of its neighbors. Jobs that pay better than scavenging are still few and far between.)

    The benefits of export-led economic growth to the mass of people in the newly industrializing economies are not a matter of conjecture. A country like Indonesia is still so poor that progress can be measured in terms of how much the average person gets to eat; since 1970, per capita intake has risen from less than 2,100 to more than 2,800 calories a day. A shocking one-third of young children are still malnourished–but in 1975, the fraction was more than half. Similar improvements can be seen throughout the Pacific Rim, and even in places like Bangladesh. These improvements have not taken place because well-meaning people in the West have done anything to help – foreign aid, never large, has lately shrunk to virtually nothing. Nor is it the result of the benign policies of national governments, which are as callous and corrupt as ever. It is the indirect and unintended result of the actions of soulless multinationals and rapacious local entrepreneurs, whose only concern was to take advantage of the profit opportunities offered by cheap labor. It is not an edifying spectacle; but no matter how base the motives of those involved, the result has been to move hundreds of millions of people from abject poverty to something still awful but nonetheless significantly better.

    Why, then, the outrage of my correspondents? Why does the image of an Indonesian sewing sneakers for 60 cents an hour evoke so much more feeling than the image of another Indonesian earning the equivalent of 30 cents an hour trying to feed his family on a tiny plot of land – or of a Filipino scavenging on a garbage heap?

    The main answer, I think, is a sort of fastidiousness. Unlike the starving subsistence farmer, the women and children in the sneaker factory are working at slave wages for our benefit – and this makes us feel unclean. And so there are self-righteous demands for international labor standards: We should not, the opponents of globalization insist, be willing to buy those sneakers and shirts unless the people who make them receive decent wages and work under decent conditions.

    This sounds only fair – but is it? Let’s think through the consequences.

    First of all, even if we could assure the workers in Third World export industries of higher wages and better working conditions, this would do nothing for the peasants, day laborers, scavengers, and so on who make up the bulk of these countries’ populations. At best, forcing developing countries to adhere to our labor standards would create a privileged labor aristocracy, leaving the poor majority no better off.

    And it might not even do that. The advantages of established First World industries are still formidable. The only reason developing countries have been able to compete with those industries is their ability to offer employers cheap labor. Deny them that ability, and you might well deny them the prospect of continuing industrial growth, even reverse the growth that has been achieved. And since export-oriented growth, for all its injustice, has been a huge boon for the workers in those nations, anything that curtails that growth is very much against their interests. A policy of good jobs in principle, but no jobs in practice, might assuage our consciences, but it is no favor to its alleged beneficiaries.

    You may say that the wretched of the earth should not be forced to serve as hewers of wood, drawers of water, and sewers of sneakers for the affluent. But what is the alternative? Should they be helped with foreign aid? Maybe – although the historical record of regions like southern Italy suggests that such aid has a tendency to promote perpetual dependence. Anyway, there isn’t the slightest prospect of significant aid materializing. Should their own governments provide more social justice? Of course – but they won’t, or at least not because we tell them to. And as long as you have no realistic alternative to industrialization based on low wages, to oppose it means that you are willing to deny desperately poor people the best chance they have of progress for the sake of what amounts to an aesthetic standard – that is, the fact that you don’t like the idea of workers being paid a pittance to supply rich Westerners with fashion items.

    In short, my correspondents are not entitled to their self-righteousness. They have not thought the matter through. And when the hopes of hundreds of millions are at stake, thinking things through is not just good intellectual practice. It is a moral duty.

    Links

    To get a taste of moral outrage against globalization, turn to Corporate Watch, a site dedicated to exposing the “greed” of transnational giants. Or, for a bizarre twist, check out Sweat Gear, a satirical online catalog that attacks sweatshops in Central America. Another argument against globalization – that it threatens democracy – is made by Benjamin Barber in the Atlantic. The Clinton administration’s word on the subject can be found in a speech by Labor Secretary Robert Reich to the International Labor Organization urging better compliance with core labor standards.

    Paul Krugman is a professor of economics at MIT. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. This column was published in The New York Times March 20, 2008. Copyright by The New York Times.

    Obama's Magic. Presto, Change-o!

    Sunday, October 12th, 2008

    by Kimberly A. Strassel
    The Wall Street Journal, October 12, 2008

    And now, America, we introduce the Great Obama! The world’s most gifted political magician! A thing of wonder. A thing of awe. Just watch him defy politics, economics, even gravity! (And hold your applause until the end, please.)

    To kick off our show tonight, Mr. Obama will give 95% of American working families a tax cut, even though 40% of Americans today don’t pay income taxes! How can our star enact such mathemagic? How can he “cut” zero? Abracadabra! It’s called a “refundable tax credit.” It involves the federal government taking money from those who do pay taxes, and writing checks to those who don’t. Yes, yes, in the real world this is known as “welfare,” but please try not to ruin the show.

    For his next trick, the Great Obama will jumpstart the economy, and he’ll do it by raising taxes on the very businesses that are today adrift in a financial tsunami! That will include all those among the top 1% of taxpayers who are in fact small-business owners, and the nation’s biggest employers who currently pay some of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world. Mr. Obama will, with a flick of his fingers, show them how to create more jobs with less money. It’s simple, really. He has a wand.

    Next up, Mr. Obama will re-regulate the economy, with no ill effects whatsoever! You may have heard that for the past 40 years most politicians believed deregulation was good for the U.S. economy. You might have even heard that much of today’s financial mess tracks to loose money policy, or Fannie and Freddie excesses. Our magician will show the fault was instead with our failure to clamp down on innovation and risk-taking, and will fix this with new, all-encompassing rules. Presto!

    Did someone in the audience just shout “Sarbanes Oxley?” Usher, can you remove that man? Thank you. Mr. Obama will now demonstrate how he gives Americans the “choice” of a “voluntary” government health plan, designed in such a way as to crowd out the private market and eliminate all other choice! Don’t worry people: You won’t have to join, until you do. Mr. Obama will follow this with a demonstration of how his plan will differ from our failing Medicare program. Oops, sorry, folks. The Great Obama just reminded me it is time for an intermission. Maybe we’ll get to that marvel later.

    We’re back now. And just watch the Great Obama perform a feat never yet managed in all history. He will create that enormous new government health program, spend billions to transform our energy economy, provide financial assistance to former Soviet satellites, invest in infrastructure, increase education spending, provide job training assistance, and give 95% of Americans a tax (ahem) cut — all without raising the deficit a single penny! And he’ll do it in the middle of a financial crisis. And with falling tax revenues! Voila!

    Moving along to a little ventriloquism. Study his mouth carefully, folks: It looks like he’s saying “I’ll stop the special interests,” when in fact the words coming out are “Welcome to Washington, friends!” Wind and solar companies, ethanol makers, tort lawyers, unions, community organizers — all are welcome to feed at the public trough and to request special favors. From now on “special interests” will only refer to universally despised, if utterly crucial, economic players. Say, oil companies. Hocus Pocus!

    And for tonight’s finale, the Great Obama will uphold America’s “moral” obligation to “stop genocide” by abandoning Iraq! While teleported to the region, he will simultaneously convince Iranian leaders to peacefully abandon their nuclear pursuits (even as he does not sit down with them), fix Afghanistan with a strategy that does not resemble the Iraqi surge, and (drumroll!) pull Osama bin Laden out of his hat!

    Tada!

    You can clap now. (Applause. Cheers.) We’d like to thank a few people in the audience. Namely, Republican presidential nominee John McCain, who has so admirably restrained himself from running up on stage to debunk any of these illusions and spoil everyone’s fun.

    We know he’s in a bit of a box, having initially blamed today’s financial crisis on corporate “greed,” and thus made it that much harder to call for a corporate tax cut, or warn against excessive regulation. Still, there were some pretty big openings up here this evening, and he let them alone! We’d also like to thank Mr. McCain for keeping all the focus on himself these past weeks. It has helped the Great Obama to just get on with the show.

    As for that show, we’d love to invite you all back for next week’s performance, when the Great Obama will thrill with new, amazing exploits. He will respect your Second Amendment rights even as he regulates firearms! He will renegotiate Nafta, even as he supports free trade! He will . . .

    This article is copyright 2008 by Dow-Jones & Company, Inc.
    Link to original article.

    The Credit Collapse is Like a Trade Barrier

    Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

    by Joe Cobb

    I wrote an article for Reason magazine back in 1974 in which I opened with the comment that “credit” is a Latin word, 3rd person singular, translated means “he believes.” (“I believe” is a credo, first person singular.)

    A modern economic system, as Adam Smith pointed out, grows more productive to the extent that it is able to promote specializations and wider trade among more people. Free international trade promotes growth and prosperity because it removes barriers that constrict and make a market smaller with fewer people to divide the labor among.

    Barriers to trade make a market smaller, and specialization is reduced, and people are poorer.

    There is an analogy here with a collapse of trustworthiness in a financial market. It will have the same contraction effect as any restriction in a goods-and-services market: it will produce a slowdown in trade, and a slowdown in growth. If a lender cannot trust he will be paid back, the cooperation between lender and borrower cannot occur. This is just as powerful a barrier as forbidding or taxing them, as a tariff would do.

    Every economist agrees the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 was a major cause of the Great Depression, and Jude Wanniski pointed out in his book, The Way the World Works, that as the tariff legislation was moving through Congress in 1929-30, the stock market was responding exactly the same way as it was responding last week to the votes in the House and Senate on the bailout.

    The new collapse on Monday, Oct.6, seems to have been led by European and Asian markets. They have not been able to get their act together to agree on any credit bailout process. And, sometimes these things turn into an unstable (short term) panic just because so few people can really see the big picture. They respond to short term emotionalism.

    What is the Answer?

    One thing that bothers me is that there is no “partial” libertarian answer. The government creation of “Fannie Mac” and the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, which forced the lowering of credit standards in housing, and the on-going pressure from Congress to promote “affordable housing” over the past decades, intensifying since 2003, has caused this collapse. The creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 was the first of many ways the financial markets were rigged. The Glass-Steagall Act created artificial “investment banks,” which have finally disappeared in bankruptcy and mergers. FDIC insurance in 1934 was another way the financial markets have been protected from competitive pressure. This has not been a “deregulated” market; it has been rigged.

    Yet, for me or anyone to suggest a partial libertarian solution without going all the way to advocate a total elimination of government national currencies, central banks, etc. would not work. And to advocate a total libertarian solution would look like very silly and impractical suggestions. This is very similar to the situation Ayn Rand observed when she contemned David Nolan for founding the Libertarian Party. She said “nothing short of a total philosophical transformation” would work. She was correct. But for a rational person, that is like asking for a transformation of human nature itself, including everyone waking up tomorrow morning and acknowledging “there is no god.” It just won’t happen.

    Here is my suggestion for a transition system, which could function like an emergency “back up” method of pricing and payments for financial assets, outside of the Federal Reserve.

    Paper presented at the Center for the Study of Public Choice, George Mason University, February 15, 1984.

    The Weak Dollar and Inflation

    Saturday, November 10th, 2007

    Here is a report from ABC News about the Congressional Joint Economic committee hearing on November 8, 2007. Presidential candidate congressman Ron Paul questioned Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about the operations of the Fed, in regard to expanding bank reserves.

    Paul vs. Bernanke on the Value of the Dollar
    by Z. Byron Wolf, ABC News

    I wish Ron Paul were better focused. His ranting at Bernanke about “printing money” is based on his elementary reading of classical economic theory. Those great cassical economics writers mostly emphasized the cause of inflation as increases in the money supply. But the value of money, like the value of everything else, is determined by supply and demand. In today’s monetary system, explaining inflation requires understanding also the demand side. An increase in the supply of money today is less important than whatever impacts the demand for money, particularly in foreign exchange markets – when the demand drops and good alternatives like the Yen and Euro are available.

    In the classical economic model, the demand for money is a constant force, or it changes very slowly. The supply of money, e.g. a printing press, gives all the action. Everybody understands the “bountiful harvest” model: a larger supply of apples reduces the price of each apple. Likewise, more dollars; cheaper dollars.

    But even if the harvest is not up, the same thing would happen to the price of apples if people decided to stop buying them due to some fad or concern they might be bad for your health. When the international, outside-the-USA demand for dollars falls, the exchange rate of the dollar also falls. Dollar-prices of U.S. imports increase, and with oil among the greatest imports, the cost-pressure hits every sector of the U.S. economy. Domestic price level inflation is mostly due to rising import costs, not domestic factors. It is not due to a surge in the supply of domestic U.S. dollars.

    Ron Paul should have asked chairman Bernanke whether he thinks the Federal Reserve can ultimately affect the demand for the U.S. dollar merely by manipulating bank reserves and the Federal Funds interest rate? In other words, he should have asked about Bernanke’s central operating tool – and whether it really works in today’s open economy, with a globalized demand for dollar-denominated assets (particularly U.S. currency). The Federal Reserve periodically studies how much U.S. currency leaves the country every year: the number is something like 80 percent of newly printed U.S. currency is exported to foreign banks.

    So to understand the plunging foreign exchange value of the “weak” dollar, the real question is why all those really smart foreign investment managers, in Europe and Asia, are beginning to have doubts about the United States economy and the leadership of President Bush? They’re dumping dollars, and Bernanke can’t do anything about it. Is there a possibility here they are growing cautious due to the evidence of mistakes and an over extended foreign policy?

    And what could Ron Paul’s proposal for a classical gold standard do about that? Not much.